Moody yakadzikisira maonero ayo eUS changamire kiredhiti kiredhiti kusvika kune yakaipa, zvichimutsa kunetseka kwakadzama mumusika nezvekusimba kwekusimuka kwehupfumi hwenyika. Sesimba guru rekufambisa kwezvinhu zvinodiwa, kuderera kwehupfumi kunotarisirwa kuderera muUnited States uye kudzvanywa kwekushomeka kwemari kwakagadzira kudzvanyirira kuviri, zvichikonzera kudzvanywa kwenguva pfupi pamisika yemhangura nealuminium. Kunyange hazvo kudzikira kweindekisi yedhora rekuAmerica kwakapa tsigiro yemitengo, kusimbaradza kwekupokana kwezvinodiwa zvekugovera uye kurukana kwekusava nechokwadi kwemitemo kwakawedzera zvakanyanya kushanduka kwemitengo yesimbi.
Demand side: Resonance pakati pekugadzirisa zvivakwa uye kuvharirwa kunze kwenyika.
Kudzikisira kwechiyero chechikwereti cheUS kunokanganisa tarisiro yekudyara kwezvivakwa, uye hutongi hwaTrump hwakanga hwakarongwa hwemadhora mazana mashanu emabhiriyoni emadhora anogona kumanikidzwa kudzika, zvichikonzera kudzikiswa kwekuda kwemhangura yekuvaka ne120000 kusvika 150000 matani pagore. Panguva imwecheteyo, mutambo wemitero pakati peChina neUnited States unoramba uchikwira, paine runyerekupe rwekuti US inoronga kuisa mutero we25% pamhangura nealuminium inotengeswa kunze kwenyika. Izvi zvichakwidza mutengo wekugadzira mudzimba muUnited States uye kudzvanyirira kudiwa kwezvigadzirwa zvakagadziriswa kunze kwenyika zvakaita sealuminium profiles nemapombi emhangura. Kana EU countermeasures ikashandiswa, iyo yepasi rose aluminium yekutengesa kuyerera inogona kutarisana nekugadziridzwa, uye Chinaaluminium kunze kwenyikakuEurope inogona kutarisana nemutengo wekuwedzera we10%.
Supply side: Mutambo pakati pekuderedza kugadzirwa uye kutangazve unowedzera.
Kuvhiringidzwa kweparutivi rwemigodhi yemhangura kunoenderera mberi, nekugadzirwa kweCodelco yekuChile kuri kudzikira ne18% gore negore mukota yekutanga, uye mugodhi wecopper wePeru weLas Bambas uchideredza kugadzirwa ne30% nekuda kwekuratidzira kwenharaunda. Nekudaro, kupedzwa kwekugadzirisa smelter mudzimba kwakonzera kuwedzera kwe0.37% pamwedzi wekuwedzera mukugadzirwa kwemhangura yakanatswa muna Kubvumbi. Panyaya yearuminiyamu ye electrolytic, kutangwazve kwesimba remvura muYunnan kwasundidzira huwandu hwekugadzira kudzokera ku43.64 miriyoni matani. Zvakadaro, kukanzurwa kwerezenisi reGuinea rekutengesa kunze kweBauxite kwasimudza kushushikana pamusoro pekupihwa kwezvinhu, zvichiita kuti mitengo yealuminium ikwire ne12% muzuva rimwe chete uye mutengo werutsigiro ukwire kusvika pa17800 yuan/ton. Izvo zvakakosha kucherechedza kuti LME mhangura inventory yakawedzera kusvika 187000 matani, nepo aluminium inventory inoramba iri padanho repamusoro re550000 matani. Iko kudzvanywa kwezvinyorwa hakusati kwaburitswa zvizere.
Mutengo uye Polisi: Iyo Impact yeMagetsi Shanduko paPricing Logic
Shanduko yesimba repasi rose iri kukurumidza nekuderedza kudiwa kwesimbi dzechinyakare dzeindasitiri. Kuvandudzwa kweEU carbon tariff mechanism kwakonzera kuwedzera kwe8-10% mumitengo yekunyungudutsa aluminium, uye kukura kwealuminum kudiwa kwe photovoltaics kunogona kuderera kubva pa25% kusvika 15%. Kuwedzera kwekugadzirwa kwemafuta e shale muUnited States kwadzikisira mutengo wesimba, uye mari yepakati peiyo electrolytic aluminium yakaderedzwa kusvika pamadhora mazana maviri nemakumi mashanu patani. Nekudaro, kuomesa mitemo yezvakatipoteredza kunogona kukwidza mari yekushandisa kune mapurojekiti matsva ekuvaka mhiri kwemakungwa. Mumba, mutemo weindasitiri yesimbi yakadzokororwa yakasimbiswa, nechinangwa chekuwedzera chikamu chemhangura yakadzokororwa kusvika ku40% panosvika 2025, izvo zvinogona kugadzirisazve pasi rose nzira yekugovera mhangura mukufamba kwenguva.
Matarisiro eramangwana: Mikana yezvimiro pasi pekusimuka kwekusagadzikana.
Mitengo yemhangura yenguva pfupi inogona kuyedza rutsigiro pa77500 yuan/ton, paine kondirakiti huru yeShanghai Aluminium yakatarisana nemakwikwi e20000 yuan mark. Kana iyo US infrastructure stimulus policy ikatadza kuita zvinotarisirwa, chiyero chekukura kwemhangura chinodiwa muchikamu chechitatu chinogona kudzokororwa kusvika pa1.8%, uye mitengo yealuminium ichasangana nenjodzi yekudonha kwemutengo wemadhora mazana maviri nemakumi mashanu nemazana maviri nemakumi matanhatu patani. Ratidza kuteerera kune maviri makuru masaini: 1) kana LME mhangura inventory yadonha pasi pe150000 tons; 2) Tarisiro yeFederal Reserve inocheka mhindu pamberi pechirongwa nekuda kwekuderera kwedata rehupfumi. Bazi remaindasitiri rinofanirwa kungwarira nezve njodzi dzekuvharira dzinounzwa nemazinga akakwira ezvese. Vagadziri vemari vanogona kutarisisa kuyambuka akasiyana arbitrage mikana uye kubata hwindo remhangura aluminium mutengo kugadzirisa.
Mhedziso: Anchoring Industrial Logic mukusavimbika.
Kudzikiswa kwezviyero kunonyanya kutadza kwehutongi hwehupfumi hwenyika, uye musika wemhangura nealuminium uri kuita shanduko yemitengo kubva pa "kuda kusimba" kuenda ku "kudonha kwemutengo". Vagadziri vemari vanofanirwa kubuda kunze kwemusungo wenguva pfupi wekusagadzikana, tarisa pane-nguva refu maitiro ekuchinja kwesimba uye kudzoreredzwa kweketani, uye kutora mikana yekutengesa inounzwa nekupokana kwemaitiro mukusagadzikana.
Nguva yekutumira: May-23-2025