Utsi hunobva kuStrait of Hormuz huri kukonzera makemikari anokonzera chisimba mukugadzirwa kwezvinhu pasi rose. Kune rumwe rutivi, kune "tsunami yemitengo" inokonzerwa nekukanganiswa kwekugadzirwa kwearuminiyamu nemagetsi, uye kune rumwe rutivi, kune "mari inotsiva" inokonzerwa nekubudirira kwemafuta asina kuchena. Kana mitengo yearuminiyamu ikakwira nemadhora zviuru zvina ($4000/ton) uye mitengo yemafuta ichikwira zvichiita kuti mota dzemagetsi dzive nzvimbo yakachengeteka, musika wemotokari itsva dzemagetsi muna 2026 uri panjodzi huru: mutengo uri "kubuda ropa" uye mutengo uri "kupemberera". Ndiani achabhadhara mari yacho pakupera kwemutambo uyu?
1. Kuputika kwetsinga yearuminiyamu: 'kuvhunduka kwekupa zvinhu' kwakanonoka
Kana oiri iri ropa rehupenyu hwemaindasitiri emazuva ano, saka "aluminium" ndiyo mapfupa akareruka. Panguva ino, 'tsinga' yemapfupa aya, Strait of Hormuz, iri kutarisana nenjodzi yekuchekwa zvachose.
Yambiro yaWang Yiwen, muongorori weGuangfa Futures, haisi yekuwedzeredza. Sezvo mamiriro ezvinhu muMiddle East ari kuramba achikwira, nyika dzakadai seUnited Arab Emirates neIran, idzo dzinovimba zvakanyanya nealumina inotengeswa kunze kwenyika, dzinogona kumanikidzwa kutevedzera muenzaniso uyu nekuderedza kugadzirwa kwemagetsi mumavhiki maviri kusvika matatu anotevera. Uku hakusi kungovharwa kwenguva pfupi chete, asiwo kushamisika kwemagetsi kusingadzoreki.
Nguva yapera: Kana tangi realuminium remagetsi ravharwa, kutangazve kunogona kutora kusvika kumwedzi 6-12. Izvi zvinoreva kuti kunyangwe rugare rukauya svondo rinouya, mukaha wepasi rose wekupa aluminium muna 2026 watove mhedziso yakatarwa.
Kukura kwemukana: Kuwanikwa kwezvinhu kunze kwenyika kunogona kukura zvisina kunaka, uye mukaha wekudiwa kwezvinhu pasi rose unogona kukura nekukurumidza kusvika padanho remamiriyoni ematani.
Mutengo wava kuderera: kana simba guru rikabuda, mutengo weLME aruminiyamu we $3700~ $4000 patani hausisiri fungidziro, asi ichokwadi chinogona kuitika.
Kune indasitiri yekugadzira zvinhu, iyi haisi nyaya yedhijitari chete, asiwo kugadzirisa goridhe nesirivha chaiyo nemari.
2. Mota itsva dzemagetsi: mutengo unodziviswa ne "aluminium" uye kudiwa kunokonzerwa ne "oiri"
Mudambudziko iri, indasitiri yemotokari itsva dzemagetsi yave boka rinopesana zvikuru: ndiyo inonyanya kutambura nekuda kwemitengo yearuminiyamu iri kukwira uye ndiyo inonyanya kubatsirwa nemitengo yemafuta iri kukwira.
1. Mutengo: Mota yega yega ine imwe mari yekuwedzera ye760 yuan ye "mutero wehondo"
Kufarira kushandisa zvinhu zvinorema mumotokari itsva dzinoshandisa simba kwakaita kuti dzive dzinoshandisa aruminiyamu zvakanyanya. Ruzivo runoratidza kuti motokari itsva dzinoshandisa avhareji yearuminiyamu inorema makirogiramu anopfuura mazana maviri pamotokari imwe neimwe, inopeta kaviri pane mota dzemazuva ano dzinoshandisa mafuta.Aruminiyamu chiwanikwainopararira zvakanyanya muzvimiro zvemuviri wemotokari, mabhokisi emabhatiri, mahubhu emavhiri, uye masisitimu ekutonga kupisa.
Ngativerengei account:
Kana zvikaverengerwa zvichibva pakuwedzera kwazvino kwe3800 yuan/tani mumitengo yearuminiyamu zvichienzaniswa nemutengo wepakati muna 2025, pamotokari yega yega yemagetsi inogadzirwa, mutengo wezvinhu zvakagadzirwa chete uchakwira zvakananga neinenge 760 yuan.
Kumakambani emotokari anotengeswa gore rega rega nemotokari miriyoni imwe chete, izvi zvinoreva kuti mari yekuwedzera inosvika mamiriyoni mazana masere emamiriyoni eyuan.
Kumakambani madiki nepakati ane purofiti shoma, iyi yuan 760 ingave ndiyo nzira yekupedzisira inotyora misoro yemotokari, ichidzvanya zvakananga nzvimbo yavo yekugara yakamanikana uye ichitokonzera dambudziko rekutumirwa kwezvinhu.
2. Rutivi rwekuda: "Kuchinja kusingashande" kwakakonzerwa nemitengo yemafuta yakakwira ne100%
Zvisinei, rimwe divi remusika riri kupisa. Oiri yeBrent yadarika $110 pabhareri, uye nhamba dziri kuchinja-chinja pazviteshi zvepeturu dzave nzvimbo dzakanakisa dzekutengesa mota dzemagetsi.
Zvinhu zviri kuitika kubva kuManila kusvika kuHanoi:
Manila, Philippines: Matthew Dominique Poh, mumiririri wekutengesa paBYD dealership, akataura kuti huwandu hweodha mumavhiki maviri apfuura hwakaenzana nehwemwedzi wapfuura. Vatengi vari kutsiva mota dzepeturu nedzemagetsi, "akadaro." Mitengo yemafuta inodhura zvakanyanya.
Hanoi, Vietnam: Kushanya kwevatengi kuVinFast showroom kwawedzera katatu. Mukati memavhiki matatu mushure mekunge gakava ratanga, chitoro chakatengesa mota dzemagetsi mazana maviri nemakumi mashanu, neavhareji yekutengesa mota dzinopfuura makumi masere pavhiki, inova yakapetwa kaviri pane avhareji yehuwandu muna 2025.
Albert Park, Chief Economist weAsian Development Bank, akataura zvakasimba kuti: "Kukwira kwemitengo yemafuta kwagara kuri kubatsira pakuchinja kwemotokari dzemagetsi. Izvi zvinogona kugadzira zvinokurudzira hupfumi kuti kukurumidzise shanduko iyi yegreen.
Izvi ndizvo zviri kuitika pari zvino: vatengi vanotenga mota dzemagetsi nekuti vanotya mitengo yepamusoro yemafuta, asi makambani emotokari ari kunetseka nemutengo wakakwira wearuminiyamu inoshandiswa mukugadzira mota dzemagetsi.
3. Mutambo Wakadzama: Kukwira Kwemutengo Kuchauya Here?
Takatarisana nekumanikidzwa kuviri kwe "kukwira kwemitengo" uye "kukwira kwekutengesa", mota itsva dzemagetsi dzichakwira here mumutengo? Mhinduro ingasava 'hongu' kana 'kwete', asi kugadziriswa kwakasiyana kwechimiro.
1. Makambani emhando yepamusoro: Tumira mari uye chengetedza mitengo yepamusoro
Kune makambani epamusoro emotokari ane matangi akasimba emhando yepamusoro uye simba remitengo (senge Tesla, BYD high-end series, mhando dzemhando yepamusoro), kuwedzera kwemitengo ye760 yuan kunogona kutorwa zvizere nekugadzirisa mutengo wekutengesa kana kugadzirisa magadzirirwo acho. Zvichienderana nemitengo yemafuta yakakwira, vatengi havanyanyi kunetseka nemutengo wezviuru zvishoma zve yuan uye vanoisa pfungwa huru pamutengo wezvose zvevaridzi (TCO) muhupenyu hwese. Kuwedzera kwemitengo kunogona kudzikiswa nekudiwa kwakanyanya.
2. Pakati nepakati pevashoma uye masimba matsva: kumanikidzwa kwepurofiti, kuchinja hupenyu nerufu
Kune makambani madiki nepakati anonyanya kutarisa pakushandisa mari shoma uye anovimba nepurofiti diki kuti atengese nekukurumidza, mamiriro acho ezvinhu akaoma zvikuru. Havana simba rakakwana rekumanikidza mafekitori earuminiyamu, uye havatsungi kukwidza mitengo nyore nyore kuti vatyise vatengi vane mitengo yakaderera.
Kuguma A: Kurasikirwa nepurofiti uye mari yekutakura zvinhu, zvichikonzera kudzikira kwemishumo yemari uye matambudziko ekubhadhara mari.
Mhedzisiro B: Kuderedza miganhu uye kuderedza kushandiswa kwearuminiyamu, asi izvi zvinogona kukanganisa kuchengetedzeka kwemotokari uye nzvimbo yayo, uye kukanganisa mukurumbira wekambani.
Kuguma C: Kumanikidzwa kubviswa. Kudzvinyirirwa uku kwe "mutengo wearuminiyamu + mutengo wemafuta" kunogona kukurumidzisa kugadziriswa kweindasitiri uye kubvisa boka revatambi vane simba rekudzivirira njodzi.
3. 'Kumabvazuva hakuna kupenya, Kumadokero kwakajeka' muchikamu chemaindasitiri
Zvakakosha kuziva kuti kunyange hazvo mutengo wekugadzira mota dzakakwana wakawedzera, makambani epamusoro ealuminium nemakambani emotokari akabatanidzwa ane manyuko avo ealuminium achabatsirwa zvikuru. Makambani ane migodhi kunze kwenyika uye maindasitiri akakwana munyika achawana purofiti yakawandisa mudambudziko iri, zvichiwedzera musiyano pakati pevanokwikwidza.
4. Mhedziso: 'Kiyi yekukurumidzisa' iri mudambudziko
Moto wezvombo muMiddle East wakangoerekana wadzvanya bhatani rekuti "accelerator" kuti simba ritange kushanda pasi rose.
Kunyangwe kukwira kwemutengo wearuminiyamu kwakaunza marwadzo kuindasitiri yekugadzira uye kungatokonzera kuchinja-chinja kwemitengo kwenguva pfupi uye kuvharwa kwemabhizinesi ega ega, kubva pamaonero makuru, mitengo yakakwira yesimba remafossil iri kugadzirisa zvakasimba kuvimba kwevanhu nesimba rekare nesimba risati ramboonekwa.
Kukwira kwemutengo we760 yuan kunorwadza, asi kana nhamba dzezviteshi zvepeturu dzichiita kuti vanhu vazeze, account iyi yatova nemhinduro mupfungwa dzevatengi. Kune indasitiri itsva yemotokari dzemagetsi, iyi ingave "kurapa kwemapfupa":
Munguva pfupi, mutambo unotyisa wemutengo nepurofiti;
Nekufamba kwenguva, inosimudzira kuwedzera kwehuwandu hwezvinhu mumaindasitiri uye kuvandudzwa kwetekinoroji (senge alloys dzearuminiyamu dzine simba rakawanda dzisingapise kupisa uye tekinoroji yekubatanidza die-casting kuderedza mitengo yearuminiyamu).
Nguva yekutumira: Kurume-26-2026