Tichipesana nemashure ekusimbaradza kwakawedzera mumusika wesimbi wepasi rose, iyo indasitiri yealuminium yakaratidza yakasarudzika anti cyclical zvivakwa nekuda kwekuomerwa kweiyo China yesimba sirin policy uye nekuenderera mberi kwekuwedzera kwesimba idzva. Muna 2025, mamiriro emusika weiyi simbi yehunyanzvi ari kuchinja zvakanyanya, aine zvipingaidzo zvekugadzira, shanduko yesimba, uye geopolitical marongero akabatana, achigadzira paradigm nyowani yekudyara pasi pesimba rekupa-kudiwa kwechiyero.
Kuomarara kwemitemo kunovaka pazasi, zvichiratidza sirin'i mhedzisiro yesimba rekugadzira reChina.
Kubva pakaitwa 45 miriyoni matani / gore rekugadzira mutsara mutsvuku muna 2017, chiyero chekushandiswa kwe electrolytic aruminiyamu yekugadzira kugona muChina yasvika kukosha kwakakosha kwe98%. Kubva munaKurume 2025, huwandu hwekugadzira mudzimba hwasvika 45.17 miriyoni matani, uye hydropower nzvimbo dzakapfuma dzakadai seYunnan neInner Mongolia dzave nhandare huru yekurwira kugona kutsiva. Zvakakosha kucherechedza kuti zvimhingamipinyi zvemwaka pamagetsi emvura mudunhu reYunnan zvave kuwedzera mukurumbira - kuderedza kugadzirwa munguva yekusanaya kunogona kukanganisa 20% yesimba rekushanda kwenyika. Iyi "inoenderana nemamiriro ekunze" yemhando yekugovera yakatungamira kune miriyoni yematani-yekuda gap mumisika yemuno. Panguva imwecheteyo, kuwedzera kwesimba rekugadzira mhiri kwemakungwa kuri kunetsekana, neEurope iri kuona kunonoka kutangazve kwekugadzira nekuda kwekudhura kwesimba, uye nyika dzakaita seIndia neRussia dziri kunetsekana kumisa chibvumirano chepasi rose chakakonzerwa neChina.
Kuchinja kwemaitiro padivi rekudiwa, neiyo nyowani yesimba track ichiva iyo yepakati injini.
Rutivi rwekuda runopa "dual track drive" chimiro: muminda yechinyakare, maChina ekusimudzira masisitimu anosimudzira kukura kwealuminum kudiwa kwezvivakwa zvitsva senge Ultra-yakakwira voltage uye njanji. Zvinotarisirwa kuti chikamu chekushandiswa kwealuminium muminda yakabatana ichawedzera kusvika ku15% ne2025; Muminda iri kusimukira, kureruka kwemotokari dzemagetsi uye kuwedzera kweiyo photovoltaic yakaiswa simba inoumba iyo huru increments. Dhata inoratidza kuti mashandisirwo ealuminium emagetsi matsva emotokari pamotokari akawedzera ne2-3 nguva zvichienzaniswa nemotokari dzemafuta echinyakare, uye kuwedzera kwepagore kwekukura kwealuminium kushandiswa kwemafotovoltaic mafuremu nemabhureki kwasvika 26%. Zvinonyanya kukosha ndezvekuti kutsiva kwealuminium mukuchinja kwesimba kuri kubuda zvishoma nezvishoma, uye maitiro ayo uye mabhenefiti asina huremu ari kukanganisa chikamu chemusika chemidziyo yemhangura. JPMorgan inofanotaura kuti chiyero chepasi rose chealuminium chinodiwa chekukura chichasvika 4% panosvika 2025, yakakwira zvakanyanya kudarika 2.1%.
Iko kusimba kwemitambo yemitengo uye kubuda kwemikana yezvimiro pakati pemhando oscillations.
Ikozvino kushanda kwemitengo yealuminium kunopa maitiro matatu makuru: chekutanga, LME aluminium mitengo inoshanduka-shanduka muhuwandu hwe $ 2700-2900 / toni, ichiratidza kurwisana kwehondo pakati pekutarisira kushomeka kwekupa uye kusagadzikana kukuru; Chechipiri, mutengo wepamba weShanghai aluminium inotsigirwa netarisiro yezvirambidzo zvekugadzira muYunnan, uye chiratidzo che20000 chave chiri kutarisa kwemitambo mipfupi mirefu; Chechitatu, kushanduka kwemitengo yealuminium kwakawedzera, uye kuwedzera kwehuwandu hwekugadzira bauxite muGuinea kwakagadzira ruzhowa kurwisana nemiganhu yezvakatipoteredza. Muenzaniso weMorgan Stanley unoratidza kuti kana pane kukanganisa kukuru kwekupa, mitengo yealuminium inogona kuputsa ne $ 3000 / ton, asi kuderera kwehupfumi hwepasi pose kunogona kurova chiyero chepfungwa che $ 2000.
Risk matrix kukwidziridzwa, mana makuru akasiyana anofanirwa kutariswa zvakanyanya
Mapoinzi mana makuru enjodzi yekuchenjerera kana uchiisa mari muindasitiri yealuminium.
Imwe gadziriso yeChina yekugadzira hunyanzvi mutemo, iyo inoda kutarisisa kudzvanywa kwesimba rakawanda rinopedza simba rekugadzira nekutengesa kabhoni emission.
Chechipiri kushanduka kwemitengo yesimba repasi rose, uye dambudziko reEuropean gasi rechisikigo uye shanduko yeYunnan hydropower kubva pakunyorova kusvika panguva yakaoma inogona kukonzera kudhura.
Chechitatu, pane shanduko mumutemo wekutengeserana, uye kune njodzi yekudzokororwa mutero weUS pane zvigadzirwa zvealuminium kubva kuChina.
Yechina ndeyekukwevera kweiyo real estate cheni, uye kugadzirisa kweChinese real estate musika kunogona kukonzera chibvumirano che8% -10% mukudiwa kwekuvaka aluminium.
Strategic zano: Bata chokwadi uye dzivirira njodzi dzezvimiro
1. Chinangwa chakaomarara chesimba rekugadzira: Tarisa kune mabhizinesi anotungamira munzvimbo dzinodhura zvakanyanya seYunnan neXinjiang, ayo kugadzikana kwesimba rekugadzira kuri kushoma pasi pekumanikidzwa kwemagetsi emvura.
2. Kurongeka kwesimba idzva remagetsi: Kunyanya kukoshesa kuchapiwa kune vatengesi vepamusoro-soro-yakawedzerwa zvinhu zvakadai se photovoltaic frames uye bhatiri trays.
3. Hedging mukana: Kiyi mupurofiti kubva electrolytickugadzirwa kwealuminiumpanguva yehwindo rekugadzirisa mutengo wealuminium.
4. Geopolitical risk hedging: Nyatsocherechedza kufambira mberi kwemapurojekiti eGuinea bauxite uye dzivirira njodzi kubva kune imwe chete yekupa.
Yakamira padanho ra2025, musika wealuminium uri kushanduka kubva kune yechinyakare cyclical zvigadzirwa kuenda kune zvine hungwaru zvinobuda zvinhu. Kuenderera mberi kwekuedza kweChina kugadzirwa kwesimba rekugadzira uye kusimudzirwa kwakadzama kweshanduko yesimba repasi rose kwaita kuti simbi iyi isarambe inflation uye inakirwe neprimiyamu yekukura. Vagadziri vemari vanofanirwa kuwana iyo yakakwana njodzi yekudzoka chiyero chekugovera chirongwa mumatatu-dimensional coordity yekuomarara kwepolicy, kuchengetedza simba, uye shanduko yekuda.
Nguva yekutumira: May-20-2025