Ⅰ. Kupera kwekugadzira: Iyo "yekuwedzera paradox" yealuminium uye electrolytic aluminium
1. Alumina: Dambudziko reMusungwa reKukura Kwepamusoro uye High Inventory
Zvinoenderana nedata kubva kuNational Bureau of Statistics, kugadzirwa kwealumina kweChina kwakasvika 7.475 miriyoni matani munaKurume 2025 (+ 10.3% gore-pa-gore), nekuwedzera kugadzirwa kwe22.596 miriyoni matani mukota yekutanga (+ 12.0% gore-pa-gore). Kunyangwe nekuenderera mberi kwekuwedzera kwekugadzirwa, musika wawira mukutenderera kwakashata kwe "kuwedzera kugadzirwa pasina kuwedzera mari"
Kuwedzera kunowedzera:Domestic alumina social inventory yakapfuura 3.958 miriyoni matani, pamwe nekumanikidzwa kubva pakuvhurwa kwehwindo rekunze (mutengo weFOB weAustralia wadonha kusvika pamadhora mazana matatu nemakumi matatu nemazana matatu), uye mitengo yenzvimbo yadonha pasi pemutengo wemari mudunhu reShanxi (3250 yuan/ton).
Kudzvinyirira kwemitengo kuderedza kugadzirwa:Zvidyarwa zveAlumina muHenan, Guizhou nedzimwe matunhu zvakatanga kugadzirisa nekuda kwekurasikirwa kwemari, zvichikonzera kuderera kwe2.85% pamwedzi mukuderera kwekushanda kusvika ku88.6 miriyoni matani pagore muna Kurume. Zvakadaro, kuburitswa kwemiriyoni imwe yematani ehunyanzvi hwekugadzira muIndonesia kwawedzera kuwandisa kwepasi rose.
2. Electrolytic aruminiyamu: iyo "yakasimba chiyero" pasi pekugadzira kugona sirin'i
Iyo electrolytic aruminiyamu kugadzirwa muna Kurume yaive 3.746 miriyoni matani (+ 4.4% gore-pa-gore), uye iyo yakawedzera kugadzirwa mukota yekutanga yaive 11.066 miriyoni matani (+ 3.2% gore-pa-gore). Zvisinei nekutangazve kugadzirwa mudunhu rekumaodzanyemba kwakadziva kumadokero (neYunnan Hongtai achichengetedza huwandu hwakazara hwekugadzira hwematani miriyoni imwe chete), kusimba kwekupa kunomanikidzwa nemitemo.
Capacity replacement inotonga:Sichuan, Guangxi nemamwe matunhu anotangazve kugadzirwa kunyanya kuburikidza nekutsiviwa kwesimba, ukuwo Baotou Aluminium yakare yekugadzira inodzoserwa kudzikamisa kuwedzera, zvichikonzera kushomeka kwekuwedzera mambure.
Kupera kweInventory kunowedzera:Mukutanga kwaApril, yesocial inventory ye electrolytic aluminium yakaderera kusvika 744000 matani (gore-pa-gore -138000 matani), uye LME inventory yakadzokera zvakare ku459000 matani, ichitsigira kusimba kwemitengo yealuminium.
Ⅱ. Padivi rekuda: "kutsemuka kwemaitiro" pakati pechinyakare uye ari kubuda makwara
1. Munda wechinyakare: Kuuraya kaviri kwezvivakwa uye kunze kwenyika
Iyo real estate cheni inoramba ichiderera:kubva munaNdira kusvika munaKurume, nzvimbo yekutengesa indekisi yedzimba dzekutengesa yaive mu "inotonhora" siyana, iyo yekuvaka profiles yekuvaka mwero yaive 61% chete, uye chiyero chekukura kwearuminiyamu kugadzirwa (1.3%) yaive yakaderera zvakanyanya pane yekukura kweiyo electrolytic aluminium kupa.
Export inotarisana nekurwiswa kwemitero:US aluminium tariffs kuChina yakakwira kubva pa104% kuenda ku145%, nealuminium inotengeswa kunze kwenyika muna Ndira naFebruary pasi ne4.5% gore-pa-gore. Makambani ari kutendeukira kuSoutheast Asia transit trade senzvimbo yakachengeteka.
2. Simba idzva uye kugadzirwa kwepamusoro-soro: kudiwa kweinjini itsva
Kuputika kwekukura kwealuminium alloy:Muna Kurume, kugadzirwa kwealuminium alloy kwakasvika 1.655 miriyoni matani (gore-pa-gore + 16.2%), ichifambiswa nehuremu hwemagetsi matsva emagetsi (yakawedzera magnesium aruminiyamu inotsiva) uye kudiwa kwemafotovoltaic mafuremu (kubatsirwa neiyo nyowani yemagetsi mutengo mutemo mutemo).
Mabhindauko ekugadziriswa kwearuminiyamu epamusoro-yekupedzisira zvinhu: Dongqing Special Equipment yakabudirira kuyedzwa yakagadzira mabheji ewaya emagetsi emagetsi epamusoro, Longi Corporation's aluminum alloy bracket orders yakawedzera ne35% gore negore, uye kuisirwa kunze kwenyika munzvimbo dzepamusoro-soro dzekushandisa.
Ⅲ.Mutengo uye Mutengo: Kuparara kweAlumina maringe neProfit Kuwedzera kweElectrolytic Aluminium
1. Mutengo curve kuvakazve
Aluminium oxide yakawira mu 'death spiral':mitengo yemumba yebauxite yakadzikira (pasi ne5% mwedzi nemwedzi mudunhu reJin Yu), mari yekubatsira zvinhu senge caustic pasoda nemarasha yadzikira, uye indasitiri inorema mari yakaderera kusvika pa3158 yuan/tani, asi mitengo yadonha nekukurumidza (Shanxi spot prices yadonha pazasi 3000 yuan/ton).
Kuwedzera purofiti margin ye electrolytic aluminium:Mutengo wealumina wakadzikira kusvika pamakumi mana muzana (55% muna 2024), purofiti yakayerwa yeindasitiri yealuminium ye electrolytic yasvika mazana matatu nemazana manomwe emayuan/ton, uye gross profit margin yeYunnan hydropower advantage enterprises (seYunnan Aluminium Co., Ltd.) yadarika 25%.
2. Kuwedzera kusiyanisa mutengo
Alumina oscillation inodzika kunze:Kukanganisa kwezviwanikwa zvemhiri kwemakungwa zvine mutengo wakaderera (Indonesia inowedzera 6.5 miriyoni matani ekugadzirwa kwesimba kuisirwa) uye kuburitswa kwesimba idzva rekugadzira (Guangxi's 2 miriyoni matani purojekiti inosvika kugadzirwa kwakazara muna Kubvumbi) yakadzvanyirira rebound nzvimbo, uye inotarisirwa kushanda kwechikamu chechipiri i2800-3200 yuan/tani.
Kusimba kwakanyanya kwealuminum electrolytic:Mitengo yealuminium yeLME inoramba yakagadzikana muhuwandu hwe2450-2550 US madhora / tani, uye chibvumirano chikuru cheShanghai aluminium inotsigirwa nehupfumi hwakaderera uye zvinotarisirwa zvemitemo (yemumba "yekuvandudza midziyo" rubatsiro), ine chinangwa chenguva pfupi ye20500 yuan / toni.
Ⅳ. Kutengeserana Kwepasi Pose uye Policy: Mutero 'Grey Rhino' uye Green Shanduko
1. Impact chain yeChina US tariff game
Kugadziriswazve kweketani yeindasitiri yemotokari:United States yakatemera mutero wemakumi maviri neshanu muzana pamotokari dzinotengeswa kunze kwenyika, zvichimanikidza fekitori yeTesla yekuMexico kuti imise kugadzirwa. Chikamu cheChinese aluminiyamu chinotengeswa kunze kwenyika kuUnited States chadzikira kusvika pa5% (makambani akadai seWan'an Technology ari kukurumidza kuenda kumusika weEurope).
Rusal Transfer Strategy:Sezvo nguva yeEU yekuregererwa kweRusal yave kusvika, Rusal iri kukurumidza kuendeswa kunzvimbo dzekuchengetera zvinhu dzeAsia (kutumira 154000 matani ealuminium kuRussia muna Kurume), uye LME heventory yeRusal yakwira kusvika pa82%.
2. Kusarerekera kabhoni kunofambisa kuvandudzwa kwemaindasitiri
Chirongwa chekuyedza che carbon footprint certification chakatangwa:Baise electrolytic aluminium carbon labeling certification yaitwa, uye tarisiro yearuminiyamu yakadzokororwa simba rekugadzira yakawedzerwa kusvika mamiriyoni matanhatu ematani pagore (neAlcoa's low-carbon aluminium premium inosvika 15%).
Magetsi mutengo mutambo:Mitengo yegasi rechisikigo muEurope yakwirazve kusvika pamakumi matatu nemashanu eeuro/megawati awa, uye kutangwazve kwekugadzira pafekitari yeTrimet Aluminium yekuGerman kwanonoka. Kugadzikana kwesimba remagetsi emumba muYunnan rave nzvimbo yenjodzi yekugovera.
Ⅴ. Matarisiro eramangwana: Iwo maviri mutambo wezvakawanda uye shanduko
1. Alumina: Kurasikirwa kunofambiswa kuvharwa, tarisa kumucheto kwekugadzira kuderedzwa
Kana mutengo ukaramba uri pasi pe3000 yuan/ton, chiyero chekudzikisa kugadzirwa muchikamu chechipiri chinogona kusvika 2 miriyoni matani/gore, asi hutsva hwekugadzira hweIndonesia hunogona kudzikisira mashandiro ekupa.
Strategy tip: Kiyi mumutengo wenguva refu wezvigadzirwa pamitengo yakakwira uye teerera kuChina Aluminium Corporation (601600. SH), iyo ine migodhi yayo.
2. Electrolytic aruminiyamu: mikana yezvimiro pasi peyakaderera inventory uye migove yemitemo
Kuwedzera kwepagore kwekuda kwesimba idzva (photovoltaic + nyowani simba mota) ndeye 800000 kusvika miriyoni matani, kubvisa kuderera kweminda yechinyakare. Iyo aluminium mutengo wepakati inotarisirwa kuchengetedza 19500 kusvika 21500 yuan/ton.
Nguva yekutumira: Kubvumbi-22-2025