Iyo yazvinoindasitiri yearuminiyamuyapinda muchimiro chitsva che "kusimba kwekupa zvinhu + kusimba kwezvinodiwa", uye kuwedzera kwemitengo kunotsigirwa nepfungwa dzakasimba. Morgan Stanley anofanotaura kuti mitengo yearuminiyamu ichasvika $3250/tani muchikamu chechipiri cha2026, nepfungwa huru ichitenderera pamabhenefiti maviri emukana wekugovera zvinhu uye kudiwa kwezvinhu pamwe nenzvimbo yakakura.
Rutivi rwekugovera: Kuwedzera kwesimba kwakaderera, kusimba kuri kuramba kuchiderera
Kugona kwekugadzira aruminiyamu yemagetsi muChina kwasvika pakakwirira pematani mamiriyoni makumi mana nemashanu, nehukuru hwekushandisa hwematani mamiriyoni makumi mana nematatu nemazana masere nemakumi mapfumbamwe nemanomwe (43.897 million) panosvika gore ra2025 uye huwandu hwekushandiswa kwe97.55%, hunenge hwakazara, neanenge matani miriyoni imwe chete enzvimbo itsva akawedzerwa.
Kukura kwesimba rekugadzira zvinhu kunze kwenyika kwakaderera, neavhareji yekukura kwegore negore kwe1.5% chete kubva muna 2025 kusvika 2027. Europe iri kuramba ichideredza kugadzirwa kwezvinhu nekuda kwemitengo yakakwira yemagetsi, nepo North America iri kuganhurirwa mukuwedzera nekuda kwemakwikwi emagetsi munzvimbo dzedata dzeAI. Indonesia neMiddle East chete ndidzo dzine kuwedzera kudiki asi dzakadziviswa nezvivakwa.
Kuchinja kwezvakatipoteredza uye kukwira kwemitengo yemagetsi zvakasimudzira indasitiri, zvichiwedzera huwandu hwemagetsi anodzivirira zvakatipoteredza muChina uye zvichiisa mitengo yekabhoni muEuropean Union, zvichiwedzera kudzvinyirira nzvimbo yekugara yemagetsi anodhura zvakanyanya.
Rutivi rwekuda: Minda iri kubuda inoputika, huwandu hwese hunowedzera zvishoma nezvishoma
Avhareji yekukura kwegore negore kwearuminiyamu yepasi rose i2% -3%, uye inotarisirwa kusvika matani mamiriyoni 770-78 panosvika gore ra2026. Minda iri kusimuka yakadai semotokari itsva dzemagetsi, kuchengetwa kwesimba remagetsi rinobuda muzuva, uye nzvimbo dzedata dzeAI dzave simba guru rinoita kuti zvinhu zvifambe.
Kuwedzera kwehuwandu hwemagetsi matsva anopinda mumotokari kwakaita kuti kushandiswa kwearuminiyamu pamotokari imwe neimwe kuwedzere (kupfuura 30% kupfuura kwemotokari dzinoshandisa mafuta), uye kuwedzera kwegore negore kwesimba remagetsi rinoiswa nearuminiyamu rinodarika 20% kwakatsigira kudiwa kwearuminiyamu. Kudiwa kwearuminiyamu munzvimbo dzemagetsi nekurongedza kwave kuchiteverawo.
Chikamu chekusanganiswa kwearuminiyamu nemvura chakawedzerwa kusvika pamusoro pe90%, zvichideredza kuwanikwa kwearuminiyamu ingots dziripo uye zvichiwedzera kuoma kwemusika.
Zviratidzo zveMacro nemusika: manzwi akanaka akawanda
Tarisiro yekudzikiswa kwemubereko wepasi rose iri pachena, uye nekuda kwekudzikira kwedhora rekuAmerica, mitengo yearuminiyamu inotengeswa mumadhora ekuAmerica ine rutsigiro rwechisikigo rwuri kuwedzera.
Kuda kwevanoisa mari kuti vawane midziyo iri kudiwa kuri kuwedzera, uye simbi dzisina simbi, senzira yekudzivirira kukwira kwemitengo uye kugoverwa kwemidziyo yakasiyana-siyana, zviri kukwezva mari inowanikwa.
Mutengo wemhangura nearuminiyamu uri pamusoro pemutengo wemazuva ano, zvichiva chiratidzo chakakosha chekukwira kwemitengo yearuminiyamu.
Mafambiro Emangwana Eindasitiri: Kujekesa Mikana Yekuvaka
Musiyano wekudiwa kwezvinhu uri kuramba uchikura zvishoma nezvishoma, uye Morgan Stanley anofanotaura kuti kushomeka kwezvinhu kuchaonekwa kubva muna 2026 zvichienda mberi, nemidziyo yepasi rose iri padanho rakaderera, zvichiwedzera kusimba kwemitengo.
Kusiyana kwenzvimbo kuri kuwedzera, musiyano wekudiwa kwezvinhu muChina uri kuwedzera gore negore, uye kuvimba nezvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika kuri kuwedzera, zvichigadzira kutengeserana kwe "aluminum ingots dzinotengeswa kunze kwenyika → China".
Purofiti yeindasitiri inonyanya kuwanikwa mumakambani makuru ane simba rakachena uye zvakanakira mutengo wesimba, ukuwo kugona kugadzira zvinhu kuri kuchinjika kunzvimbo dzinodhura zvishoma dzakadai seIndonesia neMiddle East, asi kufambira mberi kuri kunonoka kupfuura zvaitarisirwa.
Nguva yekutumira: Zvita-19-2025