Maererano nearuminiyamu inventory data yakabudiswa neLondon Metal Exchange (LME) uye Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), musi waMarch 21, LME aruminiyamu inventory yakawira 483925 matani, ichirova itsva yakaderera kubva May 2024; Ukuwo, Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHFE) aruminiyamu inventory yakaderera ne6,95% pavhiki nevhiki kusvika 233240 matani, kuratidza kusiyanisa patani "yakasimba kunze uye yakasununguka mukati". Iyi data yakasiyana zvakanyanya nekushanda kwakasimba kweLME aluminium mitengo yakagadzikana pa $ 2300 / toni uye Shanghai aruminiyamu huru zvibvumirano zvinokwira ne20800 yuan/ton pazuva rimwe chete, zvichiratidza mutambo wakaoma wepasi rose.aluminium industrycheni pasi pekupa uye kudiwa kugadziridzwa uye geopolitical makwikwi.
Mwedzi gumi yakaderera mwero weLME aruminiyamu inventory ndiwo mhedzisiro yekunetsana pakati peRussia-Ukraine gakava uye mutemo weIndonesia wekutumira kunze. Mushure mekurasikirwa nemusika wayo weEurope nekuda kwezvirango, Rusal yakachinja kunze kwenyika kuenda kuAsia. Nekudaro, iyo bauxite kurambidza kunze kwenyika kunoitwa neIndonesia muna 2025 kwakonzera kuomeswa kwealumina yepasi rose, zvichikwidza zvisina kunanga LME aluminium inventory mitengo. Dhata inoratidza kuti muna Ndira naKukadzi 2025, kutengeswa kwebauxite yeIndonesia kwakadzikira ne32% gore negore, ukuwo mitengo yeAustralia alumina yakawedzera ne18% gore negore kusvika pamadhora mazana matatu nemakumi maviri nemazana matatu, zvichienderera mberi nekumanikidza purofiti yevanonyungudutsa mhiri kwemakungwa. Padivi rekuda, vagadziri vemotokari vekuEurope vakamhanyisa kuendesa mitsara yekugadzira kuChina kudzivirira njodzi dzemitero, vachityaira kuwedzera kwe210% gore-pagore mukutenga kweChina kwearuminiyamu ye electrolytic (ine zvinotengeswa zvinosvika 610000 matani muna Ndira naFebruary). Uku 'kuiswa mukati kwekuda kwekunze' kunoita kuti LME ive chiratidziro chinoratidza kupihwa kwenyika uye kupokana kwekuda.
Iyo rebound yemumba Shanghai aluminium hesitori yakanyatsoenderana neyakagadzirwa simba rekuburitsa kutenderera uye gadziriso yekutarisira gadziriso. Kuderedzwa kwekugadzirwa (kunenge 500000 matani) kunokonzerwa nekushomeka kwemagetsi emvura muYunnan, Sichuan nedzimwe nzvimbo hakuna kunyatsozadzikiswa, nepo ichangobva kuwedzerwa simba rekugadzira (600000 matani) munzvimbo dzinodhura dzakaita seInner Mongolia neXinjiang yapinda munguva yekugadzira. Iyo yekumba ye electrolytic aluminum yekushandisa yakakwira kusvika ku42 miriyoni matani, ichisvika panhoroondo yakakwirira. Kunyange zvazvo kushandiswa kwealuminium mudzimba kwakawedzera ne 2.3% gore negore muna Ndira naFebruary, iyo isina simba real estate cheni (ine 10% gore negore kuderera munzvimbo yakapedzwa yeimba yekutengeserana) uye kuderera kwekutengeswa kwemidziyo yepamba kunze (-8% gore negore muna Ndira naFebruary) zvakatungamirira kumusana mukuru wezvinhu. Zvinokosha kucherechedza kuti chiyero chekukura kwekudyara kwezvivakwa zvemumba munaKurume kwakapfuura zvinotarisirwa (+ 12.5% gore negore muna Ndira naKukadzi), uye kutanga kuchengetwa kwemamwe mapurojekiti ezvivakwa kwakasimudzira 15% pamwedzi kuwedzera kwearuminiyamu profileodha, iyo inotsanangura kusimba kweiyo pfupi-nguva rebound muShanghai aruminiyamu inventory.
Kubva pamaonero emutengo, mutsetse wemutengo wakakwana wealuminum yemagetsi yemagetsi inoramba yakatsiga pa16500 yuan/tani, ine mitengo yeanode yakabikwa kare inochengetedza yakakwira 4300 yuan/tani uye mitengo yealuminium ichidzika zvishoma kusvika ku2600 yuan/tani. Panyaya yemitengo yemagetsi, mabhizinesi eInner Mongolia ega ega ega ega ega akadzikisa mitengo yemagetsi kuburikidza nemitengo yemagetsi egirinhi, kuchengetedza mari inopfuura 200 yuan patani yealuminium yemagetsi. Nekudaro, kushomeka kwemagetsi emvura muYunnan kwakonzera kuwedzera kwegumi muzana mumitengo yemagetsi kumabhizinesi emuno aruminiyamu, zvichiwedzera kusiyanisa kwedunhu nekuda kwekusiyana kwemitengo.
Panyaya yehunhu hwemari, mushure memusangano weFederal Reserve waKurume wemubereko waburitsa chiratidzo chedovish, dhora reUS rakaderera kusvika ku104,5, ichipa rutsigiro rwemitengo yealuminium yeLME, asi kusimbaradzwa kweChinese yuan exchange rate (CFETS index yakakwira kusvika 105.3) yakadzvanya mukana weShanghai aluminium kuti itevedzere.
Nehunyanzvi kutaura, 20800 yuan/ton idanho rakakosha rekuramba reShanghai Aluminium. Kana ikakwanisa kuputswa zvakanaka, inogona kuburitsa 21000 yuan/ton; Pane zvinopesana, kana kutengesa kwezvivakwa kukatadza kudzokororwa, kuderera kuderera kuchawedzera zvakanyanya.
Nguva yekutumira: Mar-25-2025