Musi waApril 29, 2025, mutengo wepakati weA00 aluminium mumusika weYangtze River spot yakashumwa pa20020 yuan/ton, nekuwedzera kwezuva nezuva kwe70 yuan; Kondirakiti huru yeShanghai Aluminium, 2506, yakavharwa pa19930 yuan/ton. Kunyangwe yaichinja-chinja muchikamu chehusiku, yakaramba yakabata danho rekutsigira re19900 yuan masikati. Seri kweiyi tsika yekukwira kune resonance pakati peiyo yepasirese yezvinyorwa inowira mukuderera kwenhoroondo uye kusimba kwemitambo yemitemo:
LME aruminiyamu inventory yadzikira kusvika ku417575 tons, isingasviki vhiki yemazuva aripo, uye mutengo wemagetsi wakakwira muEurope (nemitengo yegasi yechisikigo ichikwira kusvika ku35 euros/megawatt awa) iri kudzvanyirira kufambira mberi kwekutangazve kugadzira.
Huwandu hwemagariro eShanghai Aluminium hwakadzikira ne6.23% kusvika 178597 matani pasvondo. Nekuda kwekuburitswa kwakanyanya kwemidziyo yemumba uye maodha emotokari mudunhu rekumaodzanyemba, mutengo wenzvimbo wakapfuura mazana maviri yuan/tani, uye imba yekuchengetera zvinhu yeFoshan yaifanira kumira kwemazuva anopfuura matatu kuti itore zvinhu.
Ⅰ. Driving Logic: Demand Resilience vs. Cost Collapse
1. Kudiwa kwesimba idzva kuri kutungamirira, uye masangano echinyakare ari kuwana kupora kweparutivi
Mhedzisiro yekupedzisira yekumhanyisa kuisa photovoltaics: Muna Kubvumbi, kugadzirwa kwe photovoltaic modules kwakawedzera ne 17% mwedzi pamwedzi, uye kudiwa kwemafuremu ealuminium kwakawedzera ne22% gore negore. Nekudaro, sezvo iyo node yepolicy inosvika muna Chivabvu, mamwe makambani akadhiza maodha pachine nguva.
Motokari lightweighting acceleration: Huwandu hwealuminium inoshandiswa mumotokari nyowani dzesimba pamotokari yadarika mazana matatu nemakumi mashanu makirogiramu, ichityaira mwero wekushanda wealuminium plate, strip uye foil mabhizinesi kukwira kusvika pa82%. Nekudaro, muna Kubvumbi, kukura kwekutengesa kwemotokari kwakadzikira kusvika 12%, uye kuwanda kwekuita kwekutengeserana kwepolicy kwakadzikira.
Pazasi mutsetse wemagetsi emagetsi maodha: State Grid yechipiri batch yeyakanyanya-yakakwira voltage kubhidha yezvinhu zvealuminium i143000 matani, uye mabhizinesi ealuminium cable ari kushanda akazara, achitsigira kugadzirwa kwealuminium pole kuchengetedza makore mashanu akakwira.
2. Padivi remutengo, kune maviri akanyanyisa: ice nemoto
Kudzvinyirirwa kwealumina yakawandisa kunoonekwa: kutangwazve kwekugadzirwa mumigodhi yeShanxi kwasundidzira mutengo webauxite kudzokera kumadhora makumi masere / toni, mutengo wealumina wadonha pasi pe2900 yuan/ton, mutengo wealuminium electrolytic wadzikira kusvika pa16500 yuan/ton, uye indasitiri yepakati purofiti yakawedzera kusvika 37 toni.
Green aluminium premium inoratidzira: Yunnan hydropower aluminium ton mutengo wakaderera ne2000 yuan pane simba rinopisa, uye gross profit margin yemabhizinesi akadai seYunnan Aluminium Co., Ltd.
Ⅱ. Macro mutambo: Policy 'inocheka nekaviri bakatwa' inoparadzanisa zvinotarisirwa pamusika
1. Dzimba dzakatsiga yekukura mitemo inodzivirira kune kunze kwekuda njodzi
Kuvakwa kwepakati pezvivakwa zvezvivakwa: National Development and Reform Commission inoronga kuburitsa runyorwa rwe "mbiri" mapurojekiti egore rose pamberi pekupera kwaJune, izvo zvinotarisirwa kufambisa kuwedzera kwe500000 matani mukushandiswa kwealuminium.
Tarisiro yemutemo wemari wakasununguka: Bhanga guru renyika rakazivisa "kuderedzwa nenguva kweresheni yezvinodiwa zvekuchengetedza uye mubereko", uye tarisiro yekushaikwa kwemari yakasimudzira kufamba kwemari mumusika wezvigadzirwa.
2. Kumhiri kwemakungwa 'black swan' kutyisidzira kuwedzera
Yakadzokororwa US tariff mitemo: kuisa 70% mutero pazvigadzirwa zvealuminiumkubva kuChina kudzvanyirira kutengesa kunze kwenyika, zvichikanganisa cheni dzemaindasitiri senge midziyo yemumba uye zvikamu zvemotokari. Static fungidziro dzinoratidza kuti kuratidzwa kwealuminium kuUS i2.3%.
Kudiwa kusina simba muEurope: Huwandu hwekunyoreswa kwemotokari nyowani muEU mukota yekutanga yakadzikira ne1,9% gore negore, uye kuwedzera kwekugadzirwa kweTrimet muGermany kwakadzvinyirira nzvimbo yeLondon aluminium. Mwero wekuchinjana weShanghai London wakakwira kusvika pa8.3, uye kurasikirwa kwekunze kwakapfuura 1000 yuan/ton.
Ⅲ. Fund Hondo: main force divergence inowedzera, kutenderera kwechikamu kunowedzera
Kurwa kwenguva refu mumusika weramangwana: Shanghai Aluminium's main contract holdings yakadzikira ne10393 lots pazuva, Yong'an Futures 'refu positions yakadzikira ne12000 lots, zvinzvimbo zvipfupi zvaGuotai Jun'an zvakawedzera ne1800 mijenya, uye njodzi yekuvenga mari yakawedzera.
Musika wemasheya une musiyano wakajeka: iyo aluminium concept sector yakakwira ne1.05% muzuva rimwe chete, asi China Aluminium Indasitiri yakadonha ne0.93%, nepo Nanshan Aluminium Indasitiri yakasimuka ne5.76% inopesana nemaitiro, nemari yakaiswa muhydropower aruminiyamu uye yepamusoro-yekupedzisira kugadzirisa vatungamiriri.
Ⅳ. Matarisiro eramangwana: Pulse musika pasi pesimba rakasimba
Nguva pfupi (1-2 mwedzi)
Kusimba kwemutengo wakasimba: Ichitsigirwa nechakaderera chekuverenga uye mushure mekuzorora kwezororo kudiwa, Shanghai Aluminium inogona kuyedza mwero wekumanikidza we20300 yuan, asi kuchenjerera kunofanirwa kuitwa pakudzokororwa kwedhora reUS kunokonzerwa nekunonoka kweFederal Reserve kuderedzwa kwemhindu.
Yambiro yenjodzi: Iko kungoerekana kwachinja mutemo weIndonesia weBauxite kutumira kunze kwenyika uye dambudziko rekutakura rakakonzerwa neRussia zvirango zvealuminium zvinogona kukonzera njodzi yekumanikidzwa kuchengetwa.
Yepakati kusvika kureba (yechipiri hafu ya2025)
Kugadziridzwa kwechiyero chakaomarara: Iyo yepasi rose electrolytic aluminiyamu yekugadzira kugona kuwedzera isingasviki matani miriyoni pagore, uye kudiwa kwesimba idzva kuri kuwedzera ne800000 matani pagore, zvichiita kuti zviome kuvhara gap.
Kukosha kwekuvakazve kweketani yemaindasitiri: Mwero wekushandiswa kwealuminum yakadzokororwa wapfuura 85%, uye yakasanganiswa die-casting tekinoroji yakafambisa purofiti yakawandisa kusvika makumi maviri muzana. Mabhizinesi ane zvipingamupinyi zvetekinoroji achatungamira denderedzwa rinotevera rekukura.
[Iyo data iri muchinyorwa inotorwa kubva painternet, uye maonero ndeekureva chete uye haana kushandiswa sehwaro hwekudyara]
Nguva yekutumira: May-06-2025