1. Chiitiko Chekutarisa: United States inoronga kuregera mutero wemotokari kwenguva, uye ketani yekugovera yemakambani emotokari ichamiswa.
Nguva pfupi yadarika, aimbove Mutungamiriri weAmerica, VaTrump, vakataura pachena kuti vari kufunga kuregedza mitero yenguva pfupi pamotokari dzinotengeswa kunze kwenyika uye zvikamu kuti vabvumire makambani emahara anotasva bhiza kuti agadzirise cheni dzawo dzekugovera mukugadzira mudzimba muUnited States. Kunyangwe chiyero uye nguva yekuregererwa zvisina kujeka, chirevo ichi chakakurumidza kukonzeresa tarisiro yemusika yekurerutsira kwekumanikidzwa kwemitengo mumaketani eindasitiri yemotokari yepasi rose.
Background extension
Iyo "de Sinicization" yemakambani emotokari iri kutarisana nezvipingamupinyi: Muna 2024, huwandu hwezvikamu zvealuminium zvakatengeswa nevagadziri vemotokari vekuAmerica kubva kuChina zvakadzikira ne18% gore negore, asi chikamu chekutengeswa kunze kwenyika kubva kuCanada neMexico kuenda kuUnited States chakakwira kusvika ku45%. Makambani emotokari achiri kuvimba neNorth America yedunhu rekupa cheni munguva pfupi.
Chikamu chakakosha chekushandiswa kwealuminium: Iyo indasitiri yekugadzira mota inoita makumi maviri neshanu% -30% yepasi rose aruminiyamu kudiwa, nekushandiswa kwepagore kwematani 4.5 miriyoni pamusika weUS. Kusabhadhariswa mutero kunogona kukurudzira kudzokororwa kwenguva pfupi kwekudiwa kwezvinhu zvealuminium kubva kunze kwenyika.
2. Market Impact: Yenguva pfupi Demand Boosting vs. Nguva refu Localization Game
Mabhenefiti enguva pfupi: Kuregererwa kweTariff kunokonzeresa tarisiro 'yekutora zvinhu kunze kwenyika'
Kana United States ikasabvisa mutero wemwedzi mitanhatu-gumi nemiviri pazvikamu zvemotokari zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika kubva kuCanada neMexico, makambani emotokari anogona kumhanyisa masheya kudzikisa njodzi dzemutengo mune ramangwana. Zvinofungidzirwa kuti indasitiri yemotokari yeUS inoda kuunza matani angaita 120000 ealuminium (mapanera emuviri, zvikamu zvinouraya, nezvimwewo) pamwedzi, uye nguva yekuregererwa inogona kukonzera kuwedzera kwepasi rose kudiwa kwealuminium kubva ku300000 kusvika ku500000 matani pagore. Mitengo yealuminium yeLME yakawedzera zvakare mukupindura, ichikwira 1.5% kusvika pamadhora mazana maviri nemakumi maviri neshanu patani musi waKubvumbi 14.
Yenguva refu yakaipa: Kugadzirwa kwenzvimbo kunodzvinyirira mhiri kwemakungwa kudiwa kwealuminium
Kuwedzera kweUS yakadzokorodza kugadzirwa kwealuminium: Pakazosvika 2025, iyo US yakadzokorodza aruminiyamu yekugadzira huwandu inotarisirwa kudarika 6 miriyoni matani pagore. Iyo "localization" mutemo yemakambani emotokari inozotungamira kutengwa kweyakaderera-kabhoni aluminiyamu, ichidzvinyirira kudiwa kwearuminiyamu yekutanga.
Basa re "chiteshi chekufambisa" cheMexico chakadzikira: Kugadzirwa kweTesla yeMexico Gigafactory kwakamiswa kusvika 2026, uye kuregererwa kwenguva pfupi hakugone kuchinja maitiro ekudzoka kwenguva refu kwemakambani emotokari.
3. Indasitiri yekubatanidza: mutemo arbitrage uye pasi rose aruminiyamu yekutengeserana restructuring
China kutumira kunze 'hwindo nguva' mutambo
Kutengeswa kunze kwenyika kwealuminiyamu yakagadziridzwa zvigadzirwa kwawedzera: China mota yearuminiyamu ndiro uye mitsetse inotumirwa kunze kwenyika yakawedzera ne32% gore-pa-gore muna Kurume. Kana United States ikasabvisa mutero, mabhizinesi ekugadzirisa ari mudunhu reYangtze River Delta (akadai seChalco neAsia Pacific Technology) anogona kutarisana nekuwanda kwemaodha.
Kutengeserana kunze kwenyika kuri kupisa: huwandu hwekutengesa kunze kwealuminium semi-apedza zvigadzirwa kubva kuSoutheast Asia nyika dzakaita seMalaysia neVietnam kuenda kuUnited States hunogona kuwedzera kuburikidza neiyi chiteshi, kudzivirira zvirambidzo.
Makambani eEuropean aluminium ari pasi pekumanikidzwa kubva kumativi ese
Iko kusakosha kwemutengo kunotaridzwa: mutengo wakakwana wearuminiyamu ye electrolytic muEurope ichiri yakakwira kupfuura $2500/tani, uye kana US ichida ichichinja kune kugadzirwa kwemumba, European aruminiyamu zvidyarwa zvinogona kumanikidzwa kudzikisa kugadzirwa (zvakadai seGerman chirimwa muHeidelberg).
Green barrier up up: EU carbon border tax (CBAM) inovhara indasitiri yealuminium, ichiwedzera makwikwi e "low-carbon aluminium" zviyero muUS neEurope.
Bulk capital bheji pa'policy volatility'
Maererano neCME aruminiyamu sarudzo data, musi waApril 14th, kubata kwekufona sarudzo kwakawedzera ne25%, uye mutengo wealuminium wakapfuura 2600 US madhora patani mushure mekunge kuregererwa kwabvumidzwa; Asi Goldman Sachs anoyambira kuti kana nguva yekuregererwa ipfupi kupfuura mwedzi mitanhatu, mitengo yealuminium inogona kusiya zvavanowana.
4. Kufanotaura kweAluminium Price Trend: Policy Pulse uye Fundamental Clash
Nguva pfupi (1-3 mwedzi)
Kukwira kumusoro: Kuregererwa kubva pane zvinotarisirwa kunosimudzira kudiwa kwekuwedzera, pamwe neLME inodonha pasi pe400000 matani (398000 matani akashumwa musi wa13 Kubvumbi), mitengo yealuminium inogona kuyedza huwandu hwe2550-2600 US madhora/tani.
Njodzi yekudzika: Kana ruzivo rwekuregererwa rusina kutarisirwa (sekungogumira kumotokari yose uye kusasanganisa zvikamu), mitengo yealuminium inogona kuwira kumashure ekutsigira kwe $ 2450 / ton.
Nguva yepakati (6-12 mwedzi)
Musiyano wekuda: Kuburitswa kwemumba yakadzokororwa kugadzirwa kwearuminiyamu muUnited States inodzvinyirira kunze kwenyika, asi China inotengeswa kunze kwenyika.motokari itsva dzine simba(nekuwedzera kwegore kudiwa kwe800000 matani) uye mapurojekiti ezvivakwa muSoutheast Asia hedge kubva kune zvakaipa.
Mutengo wepakati: LME mitengo yealuminium inogona kuchengetedza zvakasiyana-siyana zvekushanduka kwe2300-2600 US madhora / toni, nekuwedzera kwehuwandu hwekuvhiringidza kwemitemo.
Nguva yekutumira: Kubvumbi-15-2025